Sunday, March 11, 2007

Models

Not the ramp scorching types of models. Ok the question is, do conceptual models taught in B-Schools just help you arrange information or do they lead to some special insights? Consider Porter's 5 forces, the SWOT, the 7 S model, the PDCA cycle or even the advaitha theory (I learnt it in B-school!). Are these ways of arranging known information in an easily accessible form or do they enable users develop miraculous insights? Putting together information in different forms allows the mind to think in different ways. As far as I can see it, it's your mind that's doing the thinking rather than the magical powers of a model. This is especially true of theories that work with soft data originating from human irrationality. All bets are off with data of that sort and any predictions you make are useless. This would be similar to nominal data in stats.

Now what about semi hard information like the stock markets? Stock movements are caused by a heady mix of rationally along with doses of fear and greed. Do theories like Efficient Market Hypothesis actually treat this kind of data to produce models with predictive powers? I'm not sure of that.

The only theories worth their salt are ones that exclude human behavior. Physics, Chemistry and Mathematics. Human beings somehow screw everything up. Even the weather is easier to predict.